STATUS KEY
CONFIRMED in a filing or official notice
SCHEDULED set by law or calendar
REPORTED press, not yet official
TARGET company goal; dates slip
TBA not yet announced
OCTOBER
OCT 29
THU
FCC
FCC votes on proposing a 25 MHz spectrum auction (1675–1695 and 2020–2025 MHz). Winners could use it for 5G, direct-to-device service, or both. SpaceX, AST SpaceMobile and Amazon Leo each urged the FCC to open these bands; 2020–2025 MHz sits next to spectrum SpaceX is buying from EchoStar. This is a vote to propose the auction, not to hold it.
NOVEMBER
NOV 3
TUE
POLITICS
Midterm elections. Sets who writes the FY27 defense budget and who chairs the committees that oversee SpaceX's NASA, Pentagon and FCC business.
SCHEDULEDSet by law
NOV 5
THU
FCC
Grain must certify its satellite-partner selection. The FCC's July 1 order requires Grain to file the outcome of its competitive process, backed by a neutral advisor's certification under penalty of perjury. A valid filing keeps the licenses SpaceX is buying (reported at ~$8B) on the order's satellite-specific buildout path; a flawed one sends them to a less certain fallback. AST SpaceMobile, reported to have competed for the spectrum, could object.
NOV
WINDOW
STARSHIP
Flight 15: first attempt to catch both booster and ship. On the Oct 20 earnings call, Musk said it's expected "next month." No date posted yet; Starship dates slip often.
NOV 17–19
TUE–THU
FAA
Public hearings on 456 Starship launches a year from Starbase. Brownsville (17th), virtual (18th), Port Isabel (19th). Opposition voiced here shapes how long the review runs.
NOV 20
FRI
OPTIONS
Monthly options expiration. Falls after the FAA hearings and inside the Flight 15 window.
NOV 30
MON
FAA
Comment deadline on the Starbase expansion review (docket FAA-2026-12808). The comment record sets what the FAA must study.
DECEMBER
DEC 3
THU
CORPORATE
Tesla annual meeting. No merger vote on the ballot (three proposals), so any deal needs its own special meeting. Expect questions anyway.
DEC 4
FRI
FCC
Satellite-application deadline for Grain's 800 MHz licenses. Complete direct-to-device filings by Dec 4 keep the licenses on the order's faster satellite buildout track. Because this slice of 800 MHz isn't approved for satellite service, the filings need waivers, and the FCC will open those to public comment, giving carriers and rivals a chance to object. Depends on a valid Nov 5 certification (above).
DEC 8
TUE
SHARE SUPPLY
180-day lockup ends: ~798M remaining shares. Follows the Oct 22 (up to 1.3B) and Oct 26 releases. Musk's stake stays locked until June 12, 2027.
DEC 11
FRI
CONGRESS
Government funding expires. The stopgap law (P.L. 119-103) runs out. Congress must pass full-year FY27 spending, another stopgap, or face a shutdown Dec 12. Another stopgap keeps blocking new Pentagon programs and production increases, delaying new defense and NASA awards SpaceX competes for.
DEC 18
FRI
OPTIONS
Quarterly options expiration. One week after the funding deadline.
JANUARY–MARCH 2027
JAN 15
FRI
OPTIONS
Monthly options expiration.
LATE JAN–
MAR
EARNINGS
Q4 earnings. As a non-accelerated filer, SpaceX must file its annual report by March 31. Earnings usually come before the filing; it gave four days’ notice for Q3. We’re watching for it. Free subscribers will get the date in the next Saturday brief; Premium readers get it the day it’s announced.
TBANo date yet
UNDATED: WATCH FOR THESE
None of these has a date yet. We track each one: free subscribers get updates in the Saturday brief, Premium readers the day it happens.
Merger terms
Both boards formed special committees of independent directors (disclosed on the Oct 20 call). No terms yet. The tell will be an SEC filing: an 8-K, a Form 425, or an S-4.
FCC approval of SpaceX’s Grain purchase
SpaceX has applied for FCC consent and asked for expedited approval. Watch for the public notice that opens the comment window, when carriers can file to oppose. The FCC took about eight months to approve SpaceX’s EchoStar spectrum deal.
More Golden Dome awards
SpaceX holds a $4.16B Space Force contract for tracking satellites (May) and is one of 12 companies sharing up to $3.2B for interceptor prototypes (April). The Space Force says more tracking contracts are coming. We monitor defense.gov's contract list regularly for them.
Funding the $35–40B Q4 build-out
Q4 capex guidance is $35–40B, roughly double Q3’s $19.6B. The FT reports SpaceX is seeking about $40B in Apollo-led debt for Nvidia chips. Whether it funds the build-out with debt or new shares is a supply question for the stock.
Starlink Mobile plan
Musk said he wants a separate presentation laying out the mobile strategy. It isn't scheduled. It matters most for the carriers' stocks and the spectrum fight.
FAA draft environmental statement
After scoping closes, the FAA releases a draft for a second comment round. No date yet. Until then Starbase stays capped at 25 launches a year.
FURTHER OUT
MID-2027
S&P 500 eligibility. SpaceX clears the 12-month trading rule on June 12, 2027. It also needs positive earnings in its latest quarter and over its last four combined (Q3 was its first profitable quarter), and at least 10% of shares in public hands. Its IPO sold under 5%. Even then, S&P’s committee makes the final decision whether to include SPCX.
Axios ↗ ·
S&P DJI announcement ↗
NOV 30, 2027
EchoStar spectrum final close (target). SpaceX takes ownership of the ~$17B EchoStar spectrum, held in a trust since May, and pays the purchase price. The closing remains subject to conditions in the purchase agreement.
EchoStar 8-K, May 22 ↗
HOW TO READ THIS
A date is a decision point, not a call on direction. Each entry links to its source, and the status labels show how firm each date is. We refresh the calendar quarterly and whenever a new catalyst surfaces.
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